Because so many older Americans get most or all of their income from Social Security, a lot of people ages 62 and over depend heavily on annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) to keep up with their living expenses. But unfortunately, Social Security COLAs have a tendency to disappoint seniors.
Take 2025’s COLA, which came in at 2.5%. Social Security COLAs are based on changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) during the third quarter of each calendar year. But in January, the CPI-W was up 3% annually, which means 2025’s Social Security COLA is already trailing inflation.
Image source: Getty Images.
Now it’s true that inflation could creep back down toward the 2.5% mark as 2025 chugs along. But it’s hard to know what direction inflation is headed in. And that makes it difficult to predict what Social Security’s COLA will look like in 2026.
That said, there is an initial estimate that seniors can look at. But whether it’s a cause for celebration is another story.
What 2026’s Social Security COLA could look like
Based on the most updated inflation data, the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League is predicting that 2026’s Social Security COLA will be 2.3%. That’s a notch lower than 2025’s COLA, and it’s also a number that may have a lot of older Americans worried.
But let’s be very clear. It’s extremely premature to predict a 2026 COLA given that those increases are based on third quarter data from the CPI-W. Since we’re still in the midst of the first quarter of the year and a lot can change in the coming months, it’s important to take this estimate with a grain of salt.
A smaller Social Security COLA isn’t necessarily terrible
There’s a good chance the Senior Citizens League will update its 2026 COLA prediction as more inflation data arrives. But even if 2.3% ends up being the official number, it’s important to recognize that a small Social Security COLA isn’t necessarily a terrible thing.
Because COLAs are tied to inflation, a smaller raise means that living costs aren’t rising at as rapid a pace as they once were. So to put it another way, if Social Security recipients get an even smaller raise in 2026 than they did in 2025, they might also enjoy relief in the form of lower prices or less notable price increases.
That said, anyone who’s worried about a negligible 2026 Social Security COLA should take steps to prepare for it now. Those could include rethinking expenses or getting a part-time job to drum up extra money.
It could also be beneficial to move to a part of the country where living costs are generally less expensive (though it’s worth noting that a few states do tax Social Security income, so that’s something to check on before relocating). Finally, downsizing could be another great way to drum up extra money in retirement, as it could mean not only reducing a more expensive mortgage, but also, slashing expenses like property taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
