Here we are again for another edition of my update on Putin’s War.
The major war news of the week is that F-16s finally arrived in Ukraine. In May 2023, the Biden Defense Department stopped dragging its feet and allowed NATO allies to transfer F-16s replaced by F-35 fifth-generation fighters to Ukraine; see US Announces Ukraine Will Get F-16 Fighters as Antony Blinken Takes Control of Policy – RedState.
🇺🇦 F-16 ARRIVES IN UKRAINE!
First delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO has arrived in Ukraine.#F16 #UkraineRussiaWar️️
🎥 Video for Representation: pic.twitter.com/Rog55oK9qv— Beats in Brief (@beatsinbrief) July 31, 2024
Unlike some commentators, I don’t see the F-16 as a game-changer, but it will force some modifications on how the Russians fight. Cruise missiles will become less important as F-16s are available to fly combat air patrol over vital Ukrainian interests. The lives of Russian strike pilots who have grown used to lobbing glide bombs into Ukraine will be much more interesting as they are challenged en route to their release points. And F-16s, if used properly, can open up all of Occupied Ukraine to airstrikes and prevent Russia from massing forces.
On the political front, the jostling between Ukraine, on the one hand, and Hungary and Slovakia, on the other, continues. At issue is a pipeline that carries Russian oil to those two countries by way of Ukraine. As I posted last week, Ukraine has announced its intention to shut down Russian oil deliveries. This, in light of the circumstances, seems like an imminently reasonable thing to do. Hungary’s Orban and Slovakia’s Fico lost their crap. They complained to the EU, who told them to shut up and deal with it (the EU snubs Hungary and Slovakia over Ukraine oil sanctions). The conflict has now spread due to an Orban speech that accused Poland of trading with Russia while lecturing others. Hungary also relaxed visa requirements for Russians, which, due to a unified passport system in the EU, allows Russian operatives to travel throughout the EU with ease; see Hungary’s visa move opens door to Russian spies, warns largest EU party. Orban also predicted the demise of the EU, calling into question why he wants Hungary as part of a diplomatic pact that he thinks is going down the tubes. On the other hand, Orban has assured the EU that he is done pretending to play peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine.
There was an interesting story in the New York Times that perhaps explains some of the timorousness with which Jake Sullivan and his merry band of midwits approach this war headlined Russia Warned Austin About Alleged Ukrainian Plot in Private Call.
Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III received an unusual request from an unlikely caller: His Russian counterpart wanted to talk.
…
Now on July 12, Mr. Belousov was calling to relay a warning, according to two U.S. officials and another official briefed on the call: The Russians had detected a Ukrainian covert operation in the works against Russia that they believed had the Americans’ blessing. Was the Pentagon aware of the plot, Mr. Belousov asked Mr. Austin, and its potential to ratchet up tensions between Moscow and Washington?
Pentagon was surprised at the call and unaware of any such plot. But the US contacted the Ukrainians and said “if you’re thinking about doing something like this, don’t”
Ironically, this proves Ukraine is not a puppet, but Russia is unconvinced and the US is frustrated 3/
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) July 28, 2024
The fact that Austin didn’t respond with, “Dude, that is between you and Kiev,” makes the situation much more dangerous than it need be. It effectively makes the US the owner of every Ukrainian operation. And the line between owning the outcome and owning the planning can be very, very thin. The reluctance of Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan to impress upon the Russians that they are at war with Kiev and they can’t rely on us to transmit messages about that war to Kiev is as stupid as it is inexplicable.
Ukraine received additional equipment and ammunition via the Presidential Drawdown Authority last week. I suspect the Tucker Carlson wing of the conservative movement is going to be disappointed if Trump is elected because I think their hope of a Russian victory goes away.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 126. Ukraine and Hungary Square Off, More Peace Talk by Putin, and the Escalation Flop – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card
Putin’s War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital
Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire
Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles
Putin’s War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia
Putin’s War, Week 119.
Putin’s War, Week 118. Ukraine Gets a Green Light From Biden and France Nearly Has ‘Boots on the Ground’
Putin’s War, Week 117. Jake Sullivan Under Fire, ATACMS Everywhere, and the Stalemate Continues
Putin’s War, Week 116. Russian Offensive Stalls, Ukraine Discovers Wild Weasel, and Blinken Plays Guitar
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Ukrainian Commandos in Africa?
There have been periodic reports over the last year that Ukrainian commandos are serving in Africa. The usual context is that they are operating against Wagner Group thugs. I’ve taken these reports with a grain of salt.
Earlier this week, a Wagner Group column had its lunch money taken by Tuareg tribesmen in Mali; see Russia’s Wagner Group Suffers Major Defeat at the Hands of Tuareg Rebels in Mali. The information emerging after the fight is leading me to reevaluate my position.
Andriy Yusov, a representative of HUR: Tuareg “rebels received necessary information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals,” adding, “We won’t discuss the details at the moment, but there will be more to come.” https://t.co/A9sPcog9jx
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) July 29, 2024
At least one of the fighters seems to be melanin-challenged.
Probably the most interesting part of this one is that there appears to be multiple Ukrainian GUR SOF advisors on the ground with Tuareg rebels in Mali. https://t.co/B7uMvhhya0 pic.twitter.com/eALe6PcxiQ
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 29, 2024
As the man said, “Wait, there’s more.”
A representative of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) Yusov hinted at ongoing and upcoming covert operations in Mali, Sudan, and Syria, with expectations for positive news soon. https://t.co/UTyK2GWFsn
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 1, 2024
Where is the Black Sea Fleet?
The situation is so obvious that even members of the Duma are forced to pay attention.
💬 “Where is the Black Sea Fleet? There is no ego! This is the fact of the victory of the enemy. This is a fact of defeat.”
▶️ State Duma deputy from “United Russia” Evgeny Fedorov positively surprised with his point of view on the situation, recalling how the pic.twitter.com/UNTxCXPWNU
— Tracey SBU Fella 🇬🇧🇺🇦 #NAFO (@trajaykay) July 27, 2024
The Economy is Just Fine
Russian propagandist Solovyev is mad about inflation in Russia – it hinders military production. He demands Russian central bank fix the problem.
What Solovyev doesn’t tell his audience is that the inflation in Russia is this high exactly because of the war.
Inflation in Russia… pic.twitter.com/GMG4Lk6QUz
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 29, 2024
Operational Level
The operational outlook remains largely unchanged from last week. The focus of Russian offensive activity has shifted back to the Avdiivka area. This rapid change of focus from Kharkiv to southern Donetsk looks more like a disjointed series of actions not governed by an operational concept rather than a master plan to confuse Ukraine. The overall objective still seems to be to occupy all the territory inside the historical administrative boundaries of Luhansk and Donetsk, with each local commander fighting his own war.
Russian airstrikes continue to decrease, and there are more reports of operational losses not related to combat. Over the last week, at least two Russian strike aircraft crashed. As I’ve previously noted, this is probably due to a shortage of spare parts.
The drought of Russian missile attacks continues. We are now 24 days since the last Russian missile attack, expect another major attack in the next ten days.
Shahed Blitz Attack
Overnight on July 30-31, Russia launched at least 89 Shahed drones into Ukraine. They were launched from several locations with multiple aim points. All of them were destroyed. As far as I can tell, this is the first mass Shahed attack, and it demonstrates that to be effective, Shaheds must be mixed with cruise and short-range ballistic missiles.
2/3 Shahed Launches
A total of 89 Shahed type UAVs were launched from Yeisk, Seshcha, Kursk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
A total of 89 Shahed type UAVs were claimed destroyed.
~48 in Kyiv
9 in Kherson
6 in Dnipropetrovsk
6 in Donetsk
4 in Cherkasy
4 in Mykolaiv
3 in Chernihiv pic.twitter.com/PLpH4NPtap— Shahed Tracker (@ShahedTracker) August 2, 2024
Field Expedient Artillery
Every week, we see more and more indications that Russian tube artillery is in crisis. Here, guns salvaged from BMP infantry fighting vehicles are mounted on field expedient carriages. How well will these carriages, which don’t seem to have any recoil mechanism, hold up under combat conditions? My guess is “not long.”
More improvised Russian artillery pieces made from 73-mm 2A28 “Grom” gun of BMP-1. https://t.co/f2gMIEdiTb pic.twitter.com/wnmnscANK9
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 27, 2024
New Weapons
“Gerbera” Multipurpose Drone
This Russian drone was only recently identified. There is no word on how capable it is.
A drone discovered last week in Kyiv Oblast has been identified as a new Russian multi-purpose “Gerbera” unmanned aerial vehicle
The drone is reported to be used for reconnaissance, utilized as a kamikaze drone, or as a decoy for air defense systems https://t.co/2J9x7TT0ZI
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 29, 2024
Combat Operations
Headquarters Destroyed
We will see many more of these as Ukraine adds F-16s to its Air Force.
JDAM STRIKE: @front_ukrainian posts this impressive video of a Ukrainian JDAM strike on a Russian field HQ at Zabarine on the S bank of the Dnipro. The Russian HQ was conspicuously placed; an obvious, lucrative and easy target. https://t.co/2Bzfe5QBVM pic.twitter.com/pu4bOw0efj
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 30, 2024
Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Oblast
Additional footage of Ukrainian forces from the 59th Motorized Brigade ambushing the Russian column that made a failed push into Krasnohorivka earlier this week. https://t.co/8xxO5tauA5 pic.twitter.com/w0269vBsdC
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 28, 2024
Bradley vs. BMP
US-provided Bradley IFV engages a retreating Russian BMP with many shots on target.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) July 27, 2024
Somewhere In Kharkiv
Moment the Ukrainian soldiers captured a Russian radio and tricked two Russians into not shooting at them. Upon getting closer to an enemy treeline, the Ukrainians opened fire. This, in addition to drone strikes, forced Russians to retreat.
Footage from the latest 3rd Assault… pic.twitter.com/DkbHjoXgCT
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 1, 2024
Mi-8 Shootdown
Ukrainian forces shot down an Mi-8 transport using an FPV drone.
The Ukrainian drone pilot in the Wednesday shoot-down was very skilled or lucky—or both. They spotted the 12-ton, three-crew Russian helicopter—which performs attack, transport and medical-evacuation missions—while it was still close to the ground. “Caught at the moment of takeoff,” a Russian blogger reported.
Ukrainian forces shot down a Mi-8 transport helicopter near Donetsk using a drone, after at least 10 months of attempts. They now deploy over 100,000 explosive drones monthly along the 700-mile front line.https://t.co/JuqqVz5ZUt
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 1, 2024
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
Don’t Do This
I posted above about a clash between Wagner Group hired guns and Tuareg tribesmen in Mali. Since then, other videos have surfaced.
After the military action in Mali, an incident occurred between a Russian mercenary from Wagner’s group, who survived and was taken prisoner, and a group of Tuaregs. pic.twitter.com/OFjFgzM4pi
— TOGA (@TOGAjano21) July 29, 2024
Once you decide to “play dead,” you’re stuck with it. Jumping up and throwing rocks is not going to work out well.
Camaraderie
The Russian evacuation team has made a decision. pic.twitter.com/ML1dZOQE0v
— TOGA (@TOGAjano21) August 1, 2024
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Hlyboke-Vovchansk
There have been minor positional changes inside Vovchansk, with both sides making gains and losing. The line remains stable.
Fighting continued north of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Tykhe on July 31 and August 1, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. (2/8) pic.twitter.com/fQw2vzU8uX
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) August 1, 2024
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna
Like with Hlyboke-Vovchansk, there have been minor changes on the front line. The Russian OPTEMPO here remains high but at a small scale.
KUPIANSK AXIS /1910 UTC 1 AUG/ Russian artillery strikes indicate that UKR forces are in contact W of Pischane. RU forces continue to be held at Synkivka. UKR forces staged a penetration and initiated near the junction of the H-26 HWY and the rail right of way. pic.twitter.com/k8PK4vSmNo
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 1, 2024
KREMINNA AXIS /0130 UTC 1 AUG/ Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults east of Zherebets reservoir. Russian units conduct limited operations during this reporting period. pic.twitter.com/VH12vSa4sV
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 1, 2024
Donbas
Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka
The main Russian drive on Niu York continues to grind out small gains but has basically stalled. The Russians continue to chip away around Klishchiivka.
BAKHMUT /2015 UTC 1 AUG/ Ukrainian forces maintain contact south of Bohdanivka. UKR artillery and FPV drones target RU HQ & troop concentrations. pic.twitter.com/mCrI6TKQIq
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 1, 2024
DONETSK NORTH /2100 UTC 1 AUG/ RU assaults broken up at Shumy, New York, Valentynivka & west of Novoleksandriivka. RU losses reported heavy. pic.twitter.com/QRKzs33aLH
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 1, 2024
Avdiivka
The situation in this area remains precarious for the Ukrainians. One hates to make judgments on a combat operation without being on the ground, but the problem here seems to be a leadership void that the Ukrainian high command is unwilling to fix. The advance at Seriivka makes the position of Ukrainian troops to the east of Komyshivka and Karlivka that much more precarious. That pocket will be evacuated within a month…unless it collapses spectacularly.
DONETSK AXIS /2225 UTC 1 AUG/ UKR breaks up another RU armored assault east of Kurakhove.
Ukrainian FPVs and artillery destroy 10 RU tanks and 15 APVs. pic.twitter.com/L2Ah459Vc9— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 1, 2024
AVDIIVKA AXIS / 1520 UTC 29 JUL/ Russian forces move toward Seriivka, establishing a salient. Sources indicate advance was achieved due to lack of defensive preparation by UKR units. pic.twitter.com/LByMXtE0mK
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 29, 2024
The saving grace here is that the Russians don’t seem to have the logistics capability to turn local gains into a tactical breakthrough. Drones and artillery, of course, continue to make massing forces problematic.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
The front line is stable.
ORIKHIV AXIS /1830 UTC 30 JUL/ UKR airstrike utilizing French AASM -250 ‘Hammer’ guided bomb takes out Russian field Headquarters element in Nesterianka. pic.twitter.com/QxlEijEAmO
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 30, 2024
Kherson
Krynky
There are no decent maps available of this area, but I think this operation is over. I expect Ukrainian forces to withdraw to the right bank of the Dnieper in the very near future.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Novofedorivak Airbase
This is the second time this airbase has been hit; see Airbase in Russian-Occupied Crimea Hit by Devastating Ukrainian Attack.
🚀/1. Today at 2:41 am, residents of Crimea heard at least 13 explosions/strikes from different directions around Yevpatoriya and Saky. Strikes were also carried out on the Russian military airfield in Novofedorivka.
Footage shows a military airfield in Novofedorivka. After the… pic.twitter.com/2hMdvNKiRn
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 26, 2024
S-400 Battery Destroyed
A volley of ATACMS missiles destroyed four S-400 launchers, radar, and command center.
Last night, Ukrainian forces fired ATACMS against Russian air defense positions in Russian-occupied Crimea.
NASA Firms map indicates that an area where the Russian occupation positioned a S-400 battery near Sevastopol is on fire.
Source of video: Telegram / Crimeanwind pic.twitter.com/O0wR6qppgT
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) August 2, 2024
Russia
Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast
At least one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber was hit when Ukrainian drones struck a bomber base on Russia’s Kola Peninsula, about 1100 miles from Ukrainian lines.
Ukrainian strikes hit Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber aircraft at Olenya Air Base in Murmansk region, Pravda claims, citing GUR.
Olenya Air Base is 1,800 kilometers away from Ukraine border.
Approximately one-third of Russia’s combat-capable bombers are stationed there. pic.twitter.com/CcvLcbdMHG
— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 27, 2024
Ryazan Oil Refinery and Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast
💥 Ryazan Oil Refinery and Diaghilev Airport were attacked by 6 UAVs!
pic.twitter.com/Qs20V1OaQ9— Claretta Nijhuis (@NijhuisClaretta) July 27, 2024
Engels Airbase, Saratov Oblast
The strategic bomber base at Engels has been hit for the fourth time. See The War in Ukraine Heats up as Drones Attack Russian Airbase Only 100 Miles From Moscow and Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again…, Prigozhin Makes His Move, and Putin’s War, Week 45: Putin Declares a Cease Fire, Zelensky Gets Putin’s Terms for Peace, and if You’re Fighting a War, Leave Your Cell Phone Home.
Kurksk Oblast
💥 Russia: Swarm of Ukrainian drones have been targeting electrical substations in Kursk region for hours. pic.twitter.com/wknJaxJqCv
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) July 28, 2024
What’s Next
The arrival of F-16s will be interesting to watch. There are a lot of ways they can be used. So far, the Ukrainian Air Force has operated close to the front under its own air defense umbrella. As we saw last summer, there was a tendency in the Ukrainian Army to give everyone a little bit of the new equipment, so there wasn’t enough of it to make any difference on the battlefield. Will we start seeing the Ukrainians execute a coherent air campaign plan, or will it continue to be used piecemeal?
At some point, the Ukrainian Army has to react to Russian advances in Donetsk. The slow-motion penetration of Ukrainian lines they are executing around Avdiivka could cause the loss of significant ground. While that probably wouldn’t have much of an operational impact given Russia’s inability to move from a tactical advance to a breakthrough to an operational penetration. It will have an impact on national morale and on Ukraine’s credibility with its supporters. If the Ukrainians are doing a rope-a-dope at Avdiivka, they need to realize it is time to stop. One man’s salient is another man’s pocket. An attack at the base of the Russian penetration would not only remove a threat but also demonstrate that the Ukrainian Army has striking power.
I still think that one of the reasons for the seeming passivity of the Ukrainian Army in Donbas is that a strategic reserve is being assembled. With a potential change of US administrations, Ukraine needs to put some points on the board before the rains hit and activity stops until the winter freeze.