Trying to ascertain the state of the 2024 presidential election is a bit like trying to do algebra while being waterboarded. It’s almost impossible to get a true feel for where things stand because there’s so much contradictory data.
If you want polls that show Kamala Harris is cruising to victory, you can find them. If you want polls showing Donald Trump is poised to come out the winner, you can find them. Even the much-touted election modelers are scratching their heads, with most showing a pure toss-up race heading into the final stretch of the cycle.
Still, there are some clues to be had as to what direction things are headed, and Kamala Harris’ continued desperation for a second debate is one of them. As RedState reported, after skipping out on debates hosted by Fox News and NBC News, the vice president reemerged last week with a challenge for Trump to battle her on CNN. After a statement and several social media posts on the matter, Harris then reiterated her call on Sunday while exiting Air Force Two.
RELATED: Donald Trump Tells Kamala Harris What to Do With Her Latest Debate Challenge
Kamala says she’d “like another debate” with the “former vice president.”
Does she think she’s running against Mike Pence? Dick Cheney? Dan Quayle? Has she covered up Biden’s cognitive decline for so long that it has now rubbed off on her? pic.twitter.com/ZfO2vujDZT
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 22, 2024
The Trump campaign made a big deal about her mistakenly calling him the “former vice president,” but I think the implications of what she’s asking for are the more interesting part of this. Why is someone who is supposedly winning the presidential race going away, which is what the press would tell you, continuing to demand another debate? Common sense would say that any nominee in the lead would be stupid to take such a risk. Which begs the question of whether Harris really is in the lead.
RedState’s Bob Hoge reported on Monday that internally, Democrats are very nervous that Trump could overperform the public polls in the same way he did in 2016 and 2020. While he fell short in the last presidential election, the 2024 race is far closer, which means any similar error could lead to a comfortable win for the Republican.
The number of states Trump would need to overperform has also shrunk dramatically. He’s leading the polling averages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, which means the entire election is likely to come down to Pennsylvania, where Harris enjoys a very slim lead (and is down according to some surveys). In 2020, Trump needed a massive overperformance across all the battleground states to pull out a victory and nearly got it. In 2024, things are much closer. Trump could win every swing state but Michigan and no one would be surprised given that he’s not down five or more points in most of them as he was in 2020.
With that as the background, Harris’ pleas for another debate start to paint a different picture than the one of confident joy she and her press allies are pushing. I think the vice president and her handlers are looking at the polling through the context of 2016 and 2020 and have ascertained that winning the election is very much in doubt. Thus, Harris wants another high-rated bit of face time with the American people in the hope that Trump will make a mistake large enough to sink himself once and for all. Smartly, he’s refusing to play along.
