In an act of self-harm, Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Prime Minister Keir Starmer agreed to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a nation that has never governed them, last summer. The Chagos, a series of atolls in the Indian Ocean midway between Africa and Asia, houses the strategically valuable Diego Garcia airbase.
The Chagos Islanders are unhappy with the deal and were not consulted. The incoming Trump administration is concerned. So are some European allies.
What is particularly galling is our leaders may have fallen victim to what the Russians call a special influence operation, whereby the Kremlin used its diplomatic and possibly other forms of power; say espionage or finance, to work with others to pressure the UK.
The fear is that Lammy and Starmer may have been, in part, played by the Kremlin.
Others agree. The respected Royal United Services Institute reported: “Russia saw this issue as a way of imposing costs on the UK, and it seems to have succeeded.” The result is that we are giving British territory to an ally of China and Russia, and then paying for the privilege of leasing it back. It is arguably the worst security deal in our history.
The Deigo Garcia airbase is important because it sits in the middle of the Indian Ocean, and in an increasingly dangerous world we need to preserve long-term sovereignty over our bases, even if this one is primarily used by the US, our closest ally.
The world is becoming more dangerous. Putin is winning in Ukraine. He will try to break NATO too. His shadow war against the West – and he appears to hate Britain especially – is underway. MI5 spy agency chief Ken McCallum said that Russia’s spies were on a “sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets: we’ve seen arson, sabotage and more.” That is not tabloid journalistic hyperbole or James Bond fiction, but the head of our domestic spy agency.
In Russia’s global conflict, it uses diplomatic and espionage tools to manipulate others, especially in the developing world against us. However, it is not only Russia that is creating a more confrontational world. China is preparing to be able to invade Taiwan by force in 2027. It doesn’t mean it will, but when dictators arm for war, they often proceed down that path.
If our adversaries see us as being too naïve or weak to defend our interests, it will make conflict less likely not more. Both Russia and China want to weaken Western unity and break the alliance between the US and Europe. Such a result will see the end of the West and the beginning of a new era where authoritarian might becomes right. We risk a return to the era of state-on-state wars.
The Chagos talks started when the Tories were in power, but were sensibly halted by David Cameron. As soon as Conservatives lost the election, the deal was dusted down and agreed by defeatist diplomats and Labour’s woke worriers.
The Foreign Secretary has said that the base is more secure now. It isn’t. Around Diego Garcia is ocean. If these waters are ours, we can police them to prevent unwelcome visitors. Keeping them also preserves the relatively pristine oceans from overfishing. Losing the freehold damages the environment as well as our security.
Russia and other nations are actively working against us. They have probably done so here.
Our wartime leader Winston Churchill was born 150 years ago this weekend. The great man reminded us that weakness encourages dictators, whilst strength deters them.
There is still time to kill this deal. We should do so.
Dr Bob Seely’s book, The Return of Total War, Russia’s War in Ukraine and Against the West, is published by Biteback in the Spring
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